B. Scientifically, it's complicated
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Water at ponding is lost to evaporation, transpiration, and infiltration.
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Losses vary due to air and water temperature, humidity, wind speed, and net radiation. [1,2].
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It is conventionally tested in-field with pans or tubs and meteorological information [1,3].
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Still, the measurements generally are of only evaporation loss.
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Some cite the largest loss as evapotranspiration in arid and semiarid lands, perhaps 95% [4].
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(Evapotranspiration is combined evaporation and transpiration.)
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Others observe that infiltration can be more than half the total loss [5].
C. Tool for evaporation loss
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Determined from flow per hour (cf/hour).
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Calculated as 0.5-1% of the flow,
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Depending on shaded to full sunlight conditions.
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Calculation is used to represent (estimate) loss per day (cf/day).
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Recognizes ponds as flowing systems, not static.
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That is, water continuously is available to be lost.
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Tool is applied by professional landscapers [6].
D. Scenario approach
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No water loss data is known for the upper Dolores basin.
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Scenario or worst case assessments have been used by at other study sites to estimate possible water loss [7].
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For Dolores, potential pond locations in candidate streams were identified.
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Flows were obtained for those [8].
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Water loss from evaporation was calculated for those locations.
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Conservative assumptions were applied, maximizing estimated loss.
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Flows for the most vulnerable water-temperature months were used.
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Those flows were compared with the amount of flow entering the reservoir.
E. Conservative assumptions and vulnerable conditions
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Started with the 1% factor, that is, assumed continuous full-sunlight conditions.
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Additional conservative assumptions
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Assume significant infiltration loss.
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Incorporate also transpiration loss.
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Upgraded to a 2-3% factor for combined evapotranspiration and infiltration loss.
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Used flows for July-August, the warmest months, the most habitat-sensitive.
F. Scenario estimates
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Installation, a BDA, 2 mi upstream in a candidate tributary.
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Assumption, main loss, evaporation, 1% factor
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Wildcat, 90 BDAs for 1% loss at McPhee.
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Coal, 38 BDAs for 1% loss at McPhee.
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Conservative assumption, combined loss, evapotranspiration and infiltration, 2% factor
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Wildcat, 45 BDAs for 1% loss at McPhee.
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Coal, 19 BDAs for 1% loss at McPhee.
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Additionally conservative assumption, 3% factor
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Wildcat, 30 BDAs for 1% loss at McPhee.
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Coal, 13 BDAs for 1% loss at McPhee.
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G. Simple, preliminary conclusion
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Installation of several BDAs in the upper Dolores basin will not significantly reduce flow to McPhee reservoir.
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It is based on this assessment using a scenario approach, applying a calculation tool for estimating daily water loss at ponding, and invoking conservative assumptions.
H. Non-ponded water
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Water loss by evaporation occurs all along a stream, not just at ponding.
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Turbulent water logically has more water surface area exposed for evaporation to occur than happens in still water.
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"Water movement [has been] found to increase rates of evaporation relative to non-moving water during periods of low vapor pressure deficit and no air movement" [9].
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That is to say, key are air and water temperature differences and wind.
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It appears that water-loss contributions from ponding, that is, adding to what occurs from stream flow, are seasonal.
I. Cooling
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Stream water loses heat by evaporation, that is, the water cools.
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Evaporation is greatest when temperatures are highest, giving the most cooling.
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Smaller streams, having less depth and water volume, heat and cool quicker than larger streams.
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So cooling by evaporation is most consequential at small streams for offsetting a tendency for water temperatures to rise.
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Notably, the relatively small volumes of trout habitat at small streams are vulnerable to both water losses and temperature increases, and the evaporative process figures in both.
References
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Professional landscapers: https://willowridgegardencenter.com/how-much-water-does-a-pond-lose-to-evaporation/; https://backyardsidekick.com/how-much-water-your-pond-will-lose-to-evaporation/; https://support.aquascapeinc.com/hc/en-us/articles/205446445-Evaporation-rates.
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From application of the U.S. Geological Survey Water Program StreamStats, https://streamstats.usgs.gov/ss/.